The Australian Open 2026 is set to begin this weekend, and with the official singles draws now released in Melbourne, early storylines are already emerging. Some top players have received relatively smooth paths, while others face immediate challenges. Here is a detailed draw analysis, key matchups to watch, and what the bracket could mean for the title race in both the men’s and women’s singles events.
Australian Open 2026: When Does the Tournament Start?
The Australian Open 2026 begins on Sunday, January 18, with first-round matches starting at 03:00 WIB (Western Indonesian Time). As the first Grand Slam of the season, the tournament immediately puts pressure on top players to find form quickly under demanding conditions.
Men’s Draw: Medvedev Gets Breathing Room, Alcaraz Faces Early Tests
Daniil Medvedev’s Favorable Quarter
Daniil Medvedev can consider himself relatively lucky with the draw. He avoids several dangerous early-round opponents and opens his campaign against Jesper de Jong, a matchup that clearly favors the Russian.
More importantly, the top seeds in Medvedev’s quarter are historically favorable opponents for him:
- Felix Auger-Aliassime, a projected Round of 16 opponent
- Alexander Zverev, a potential quarterfinal opponent
Both players have struggled against Medvedev’s game style in the past. However, the draw is not entirely without danger — Learner Tien, a player who has consistently troubled Medvedev, could replace Auger-Aliassime in the fourth round.
Rublev and Khachanov Face a Steeper Climb
Medvedev shares his half with Andrey Rublev, who opens against Matteo Arnaldi and could face Zverev as early as the Round of 16. Based purely on the bracket, a first Grand Slam semifinal for Rublev at the Australian Open still appears unlikely.
Karen Khachanov, meanwhile, receives an immediate rematch against Alex Michelsen, the same opponent who eliminated him in Melbourne last year. Considering Khachanov’s slow start to the season, this first-round pairing is far from ideal.
Bublik as the Ultimate Wild Card
Few players in the draw are more unpredictable than Alexander Bublik. His potential impact could be felt most strongly by:
- Alex de Minaur, in a possible Round of 16
- Carlos Alcaraz, in a potential quarterfinal
However, Bublik’s own opening match is anything but simple, as he faces the disciplined and machine-like Jenson Brooksby, who is capable of absorbing pace and exposing inconsistency.
Matches to Watch in the First Round
The opening round features a number of eye-catching encounters, including:
- Alexander Bublik vs Jenson Brooksby
- Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini
- Grigor Dimitrov vs Tomas Machac
- Hubert Hurkacz vs Zizou Bergs
- Ben Shelton vs Ugo Humbert
These matches could shape the draw earlier than expected.
Veterans and Key Storylines
A special moment awaits when Stan Wawrinka, now 40 years old, faces Laslo Djere. The 2014 Australian Open champion is playing what is expected to be his final appearance in Melbourne and has shown strong motivation, highlighted by multiple long three-set matches at the United Cup.
A blockbuster third-round clash is already looming: two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner vs rising star Joao Fonseca, a matchup many fans are hoping will materialize.
Sinner, Djokovic, and the Bottom Half
Sinner’s quarter includes Ben Shelton, while his half also features Novak Djokovic and Lorenzo Musetti.
For Djokovic, the primary concern in the opening week is physical rather than tactical — lingering neck discomfort has been reported. From a matchup standpoint, most early-round opponents appear manageable. A potential fourth-round meeting with Jakub Mensik, who defeated Djokovic in Miami last season, could be one of the tournament’s most intriguing tests.
Projected Men’s Quarterfinals Based on Seeding
If seeds hold, the quarterfinals would look as follows:
- Alcaraz (1) vs De Minaur (6)
- Zverev (3) vs Auger-Aliassime (7)
- Musetti (5) vs Djokovic (4)
- Shelton (8) vs Sinner (2)
Women’s Draw: Sabalenka Balanced, Andreeva Under Pressure
Sabalenka’s Interesting but Manageable Path
World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka opens against wildcard Tianzoa Rakotomananga Rajaona, whose name may be the toughest part of the matchup.
The difficulty increases gradually:
- Possible second round vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
- Potential third round vs Emma Raducanu
- Fourth round vs Victoria Mboko or Clara Tauson
It is a solid warm-up for the decisive stages of the tournament.
A Brutal Draw for Mirra Andreeva
By contrast, Mirra Andreeva faces one of the toughest paths in the women’s draw. She opens against Donna Vekic, a player capable of overwhelming opponents on a good day.
Further potential hurdles include:
- Dayana Yastremska in the third round
- Diana Shnaider or Elina Svitolina in the fourth round
Reaching a quarterfinal against Coco Gauff could leave Andreeva physically and mentally drained.
A Loaded Bottom Quarter
The bottom quarter of the women’s draw is particularly crowded, featuring:
- Iga Swiatek
- Elena Rybakina
- Belinda Bencic
- Naomi Osaka, a two-time Australian Open champion
Depth and experience dominate this section, making it one of the most unpredictable parts of the bracket.
Projected Women’s Quarterfinals Based on Seeding
If seeds advance as expected, the quarterfinals would be:
- Sabalenka (1) vs Paolini (7)
- Gauff (3) vs Andreeva (8)
- Pegula (6) vs Anisimova (4)
- Rybakina (5) vs Swiatek (2)
Final Thoughts Ahead of Australian Open 2026
The draw suggests a tournament of contrasts: smoother paths for some established contenders and early pressure for younger stars. As always at the Australian Open, form, fitness, and recovery under heat will play decisive roles from the very first round.
For the full Australian Open schedule, daily order of play, and the latest match results, visit our complete tournament schedule and results page.
